Maybe it’s more people dying than babies being born, or the lure of new jobs and cheaper housing in the west of the city, or – alarmingly – people have had enough of apartment living, but the populations of Sydney’s eastern suburbs are in serious decline.

Perhaps it’s that rents have been pushed up by the spread of Airbnb in the city’s “party” burbs. Whatever the reason, among the suburbs shedding most residents are those where the majority live in apartments.

According to a report in the Sydney Morning Herald, more than 30,000 people left the eastern half of Sydney for other parts of Australia in the 2024-25 financial year. In contrast, western Sydney lost a mere 2,800 in net terms – and some western suburbs actually gained residents from interstate.

The Herald report, citing Bureau of Statistics figures and KPMG analysis, found population drops in suburbs like Coogee-Clovelly (down 131), Turramurra (down 114) and Hunters Hill-Woolwich (down 111), which has now shrunk 7 per cent over the past decade.

Most units

Here’s where it gets interesting for apartment dwellers. According to the most recent Census data, almost 80 per cent of occupied dwellings in the suburb of Coogee are apartments. Across the broader Waverley council area – taking in Bondi, Bronte and surrounds – around 64 per cent are units. In the Woollahra and Randwick local government areas, apartments account for roughly 56 per cent of housing stock.

These are, overwhelmingly, strata communities. And they are the ones haemorrhaging residents.

Compare that with the booming north-west, where Box Hill-Nelson added nearly 4,000 new residents in a single year and Marsden Park-Shanes Park grew by 3,100. Census figures show that in Box Hill, just 1.3 per cent of dwellings are medium or high density. This is detached house territory – new estates on former farmland, not strata schemes.

Even in the population-losing north shore suburbs, the housing mix tells a story. Census data shows Turramurra is 68 per cent detached houses and 27 per cent apartments. Hunters Hill is nearly 69 per cent houses and only 19 per cent apartments. These areas are losing people too, but the decline is less acute and the apartment proportion is lower.

So why are apartment-heavy suburbs losing residents faster? KPMG urban economist Terry Rawnsley told the Herald that the combination of ageing populations and extreme house prices is pushing young families out. And in a suburb where four out of five homes are apartments, there’s a ceiling on how many families with growing children will stay. The Herald report noted that in 42 suburbs across Greater Sydney, deaths now outnumber births – a trend Macquarie University demographer Nick Parr said would only get worse.

Aging population

For the strata sector, this raises uncomfortable questions. If apartment-dominated suburbs can’t hold onto young families, the demographic profile of these buildings will continue to tilt older.

That means more estates winding up, more aged care considerations in strata management, and potentially less capacity on committees to deal with the increasingly complex demands of building maintenance and compliance.

Meanwhile, western Sydney’s growth is almost entirely in houses – for now. But as these areas mature and densify, the strata sector will inevitably follow. The question is whether the industry learns from the east’s experience before it gets there.

Sydney’s population grew by 75,000 overall last year, almost entirely through – m overseas migration. But the internal reshuffling – from apartment-heavy east to house-heavy west – suggests that when Australians get to choose, many are choosing to leave strata behind.

Based on reporting by Matt Wade, Sydney Morning Herald, April 7, 2026. Dwelling type proportions are drawn from the Australian Bureau of Statistics Census of Population and Housing (2016 and 2021).